Overview
The smktrans R package provides a methodological framework and automated workflow for estimating the probabilities of individuals transitioning between smoking states (initiation, quitting, and relapse) using repeat cross-sectional survey data.
It is a core component of the Sheffield Tobacco and Alcohol Policy Modelling (STAPM) platform, specifically designed to generate transition parameters for the Sheffield Tobacco Policy Model (STPM).
Key Methodological Capabilities
Cohort Reconstruction: Methods to derive longitudinal-style life histories from cross-sectional survey data.
The “Quit Solver”: A mathematical approach to estimating age-specific quit rates by reconciling changes in smoking prevalence with known initiation, relapse and mortality rates.
Long-term Forecasting: Tools to project transition probabilities over extended time horizons (e.g., to 2040) to support policy impact assessments.
Data Stratification: Estimation by age, sex, and Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) quintiles.
Documentation and Vignettes
For comprehensive guides on package usage and detailed methodology, please refer to the Articles section of the package website.
Key documentation includes:
Package Workflow: A step-by-step guide to the estimation process.
Methodological Documentation: Technical details on the “Quit Solver” and cohort reconstruction.
Accessing Estimates: Presentation of the pre-calculated estimates for England, Scotland, and Wales.
Installation
The package can be installed from GitHub. Please note that smktrans depends on several internal STAPM packages for data processing and mortality adjustment.
# install.packages("remotes")
# 1. Install STAPM dependencies
remotes::install_github("stapm-platform/hseclean")
remotes::install_github("stapm-platform/tobalcepi")
remotes::install_github("stapm-platform/mort.tools")
# 2. Install smktrans
remotes::install_github("stapm-platform/smktrans")Citation
If you use the smktrans estimates in your research, please cite our peer-reviewed modelling papers. These publications validate the use of these estimates in policy appraisal contexts:
Chen RKL, Morris D, Angus C, Gilmore A, Hiscock R, Holmes J, Langley TE, Pryce R, Wilson LB, Brennan A, Gillespie D (2026). Reducing the exceptional affordability of hand-rolling tobacco using tax escalators: a health and economic impact modelling study for England. Tobacco Control. DOI: 10.1136/tc-2025-059670
Gillespie D, Morris D, Angus C, Wilson L, Chen RKL, Leeming G, Holmes J, Brennan A (2025). Model-based appraisal of the potential effects of minimum pricing for tobacco in Scotland. Tobacco Control. DOI: 10.1136/tc-2024-059252
To cite the smktrans software package specifically:
Gillespie, D., and Brennan, A. (2026). smktrans: An R Package for estimating smoking state transition probabilities (v2.0.0). University of Sheffield. https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/YGXQ9
To cite the full technical documentation for the underlying model:
Gillespie, D. & Brennan, A. (Year). The Sheffield Tobacco Policy Model (STPM): full technical documentation. Documentation version number [x.x.x]. University of Sheffield. DOI: 10.17605/OSF.IO/FR7WN
(Note: The technical documentation is a living document. Please cite the year and version of the report you used.)
Authors & Acknowledgements
Contact
For methodological queries or to report technical issues, please use the GitHub Issue Tracker or contact Dr Duncan Gillespie (duncan.gillespie@sheffield.ac.uk).