Calculate Net Initiation Probabilities (Synthetic Cohort)

Calculates "Net Initiation" probabilities by simulating a synthetic cohort starting at age 12. This metric represents the net flow into the "Current Smoker" state (Initiation + Relapse - Quitting) relative to the non-smoking population at each age.

It solves the issue where high initiation rates at young ages are offset by high quit rates (experimentation vs. established smoking).

Usage

calculate_net_initiation(init_data, quit_data, relapse_data, pops, config)

Arguments

init_data

Data.table. Initiation probabilities.

quit_data

Data.table. Quit probabilities.

relapse_data

Data.table. Relapse probabilities (must contain 'time_since_quit').

pops

Data.table. Population weights.

config

List. Must contain 'country' and uncertainty params ('kn', 'kn_samp', 'kR').

Details

Assumptions:

• The cohort starts at age 12 with 100

• Relapse probabilities are selected based on age-specific assumptions about average time since quitting: (12-17: 1yr, 18-24: 3yrs, 25-30: 5yrs).